Other Plans

 

“And the Lord said, “Behold, they are one people, and they have all one language, and this is only the beginning of what they will do. And nothing that they propose to do will now be impossible for them.”- Genesis 11:6

Thousands of years ago, our ancient ancestors came up with a big plan. They had become more than just primitive hunter gathers who had learned how to use fire and make weapons from wood and stone.  These people had learned how to design and manufacture complex products.  They had developed the intelligence and the materials to build ever greater structures.  So, they decided it was time to make a name for themselves by building a tower that reached to the heavens.  But so often as it turns out, God had other plans.

Thousands of years later, we have come up with a new plan. A plan which captures and uses all recorded human knowledge and experience in more powerful and creative ways than ever imagined.  A plan which will create digital genies who can answer every question and someday soon grant every wish.  

Intelligent machines will do the heavy lifting as well as the delicate work of replacing an arthritic knee or repairing a damaged heart.  Robots will conduct massive research projects at unprecedented speeds to find cures for whatever ails us.  Eventually we will not have to ask questions, the genie will just know what we want and when we want it.  Life for flesh and blood human beings will become effortless. 

Perhaps the genies can make life go on forever or so some might wish. But I don’t want to live in a world where my dog walks me, or fish jump in the boat, or reading a book just feels like too much work.  I need to know that things are difficult and some are impossible, but still worth the effort.  It is good for me to solve problems and find the answers on my own.  Oh, I will accept and embrace Artificial Intelligence up to a point.  But A.I. will not make me smarter or feel more alive or draw me closer to God.  Besides, He still has other plans.

The Measure

Something's just not right.

That young man in the high school yearbook 

Is an old man now and dead.

I don't want to know how he looks.

It only reminds me of what's ahead.

 

Inside of us it's the 60's

We are still kids like we were back then

Was it real or just a dream?

At best it was a race against time.

Running past the life that was in between.

 

What’s past is not forgotten.

Would that I could repair,

But I don’t know how.

What’s left of us is never enough.

Regrets are the measure from then to now.

 

Something’s just not right.

The young are old and soon to be gone.

So very much we should have done.

But listen now to the fading voices,

And take one last look at the setting sun.

 

It’s the Economy Stupid…

 

“With audacity one can undertake anything, but not do everything.” – Napolean Bonaparte

The Republicans just won the White House and both houses of Congress on the economy (inflation) and immigration, mostly on the economy.  Sure, there are the culture wars, DEI, gender issues, “wokeism”, etc.  But ultimately, it’s about the economy and how government decisions and policies impact real people in their everyday lives. When it comes to the economy, timing is everything.  And, for the most part, whether it’s the Republicans or the Democrats in control; Washington finds a way to get it wrong.

The Republicans, specifically Trump and his team, have been given the greatest opportunity to positively impact the future of the United States since the Louisiana Purchase in 1803.  And they are blowing it…big time.  First of all, they are just flat wrong on tariffs. Secondly, while cutting government spending is a must and they are to be applauded for making it a priority; they are going about it the wrong way.  Most of these federal government agencies, as bloated and inefficient as they may be, actually do some good and necessary work.  Third, shutting down illegal immigration and deporting violent criminals, drug dealers and sex traffickers is the right thing to do.  Setting off panic among those undocumented immigrants who are here working and behaving themselves will have negative consequences for many industries.

More to the point on the immigration issue.  No question we must clean up the mess of the last four years.  But if the objective is to clean up “the mess” of the last 75 years, by deporting all those who are here illegally, that is a fool’s errand.  Time and money would be better spent establishing rational immigration policies and providing resources to manage it, including a pathway to citizenship for those who have been here for a long time quietly working and staying out of trouble.  

The DOGE project to cut government waste and reduce spending is long overdue and well-intended.  But its approach and methods are ill-advised.  We consider some corporations as being “too big to fail” knowing that if they did, it would have a catastrophic domino effect on the entire global economy.  The fact of the matter is that the U.S. Federal Government is by far the largest institution on the planet.  Its budget dwarfs those of the world’s largest corporations.  Shutting down entire agencies or pulling all funding from them will create unnecessary hardships for millions of people around the world.  The mess that is our federal bureaucracy was created over decades and some of it for good reasons. Attempting to undo it in a matter of weeks is a recipe for disaster.  My advice to DOGE: “Measure twice, cut once”… and realize that while the government is not a charitable organization, it’s not the same as a business either.

And then there are the tariffs. In general tariffs are a bad idea.  When a country is not cost competitive in their domestic production and distribution of a product, placing tariffs on foreign producers only hurts your domestic consumers.  If we had excess capacity (plants, equipment and workers) it might make some sense even if it raised prices on the product in the short run.  If we were not deep in debt and could afford to subsidize domestic producers until they were competitive with foreign producers, it might make sense.  But for now, we are dependent on foreign producers; far too dependent.  It’s a hole we’ve dug for ourselves since the end of WW2.  It may take a generation to restore domestic manufacturing to a level which makes us less dependent on foreign producers.  In the meantime, we could use tariffs selectively in cases where other nations are clearly dumping products to gain market share, stealing technology or engaged in unfair trade practices.  But just because we have a negative trade balance with some other nation doesn’t mean it’s their fault or necessarily a bad thing.

Republicans would do well to understand that if their crusade to correct for all the bad policies and programs established by those Democrats AND Republicans who came before them ends up creating the next Great Recession, they might not win another election for 20 years.  And even worse, the ones who take their place will likely double down on the same old bad policies that got us into this mess in the first place.

The Little Ones

 

11-year old Jocelynn Carranza is dead. Certain classmates at her school in Gainesville, Texas thought it would be great fun to threaten to call ICE on her family and have her parents deported.  In fear of losing her family and being left alone, Jocelynn Carranza took her own life.

 No one should, but many will politicize this tragedy. The Left will say “Aha”, see what happens when you turn the ICE dogs loose and Fox News celebrates the purge of undocumented immigrants.  The Right will counter with none of this would be necessary if Democrats had not opened the borders the last four years and allowed our country to be invaded by illegal immigrants.  Sadly, we know how our politicians and the media will spin this.

 But the real issue here is the behavior of some children toward other children.  Of parents failing to teach their children right from wrong.  Of course, there have always been bullies on the school yard.  We had them back in my day.  But they were few; often wildly unpopular and not in the mainstream of students.  They were also subjected to punishment from teachers and reports going back to their parents who often meted out additional punishment.  At least to a significant degree bullying was held at bay. 

Not so these days.  Teachers may lecture about bullying and post messages around the classroom to raise awareness and discourage bullying.  But it’s a bit like the old Robin Williams joke about un-armed London Bobbies shouting at criminals to “stop or I will say stop again.”  In too many places school yards have come to resemble a prison yard with the guards looking the other way (or at their smart phones). Add in social media bullying and there’s no escaping it when a group of bullies finds a vulnerable target.

 11-year old Jocelynn Carranza is dead.  Who’s most at fault?  Perhaps all of us.

 

“Red and Yellow, Black and White,

They are precious in His sight.

Jesus loves the little children of the world”

Groundhog Day Again...and Again

"What you don't want to do is dig around here like a groundhog on crack."- Joe Teti

Confession: I did vote for Trump, again.  Mea Culpa.  But I blame the Democrats. They need to do better. With confession out of the way and executive orders flying out of the oval office like a covey of quail, it is now time to weigh in on the first fortnight of Trump’s second term.

_Cabinet Picks: Grade B

Several of his choices are just too controversial and “one-off”.  Perhaps they can do the job and do it very well.  But why set them up, as well as yourself, for failure? RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbert and Pete Hegseth are “out of left field” picks that even have Republicans shaking their heads.  The rest of them, including Kash Patel are solid picks, even if Democrats are bashing them. 

 _Changing the Map: Grade F

This would qualify as an unnecessary distraction akin to telling your spouse that you wish to change which side of the bed you sleep on.  Is it really worth it?  I’m good with Mt. Denali and the Gulf of Mexico.  Let’s move on.  Nothing to see here. 

_Just Spit-balling: Grade C

Reminding Panama that we run the Americas, built the canal and protect their country and the canal from the bad guys is not a bad idea. Shining a light on who’s keeping the lights on in Greenland sends a message, but to what end?  I’m not sure Panama or Greenland are among the most pressing issues facing us at this time.  

_Beg Your Pardon: Grade B

I get it, Biden totally abused his presidential pardon power.  It is what it is.  Trump had the opportunity to do better and selectively pardon those Jan 6 protestors who were unfairly prosecuted.  But there were some in that bunch who deserved to go to jail and stay there for a while. (Just like there were some Antifa and BLM protesters who should have been arrested and prosecuted on Biden’s watch).  But Trump likes to use the driver even when an iron off the tee is the smart play.  So, let’s just pardon all the J6-ers

_Spending Cuts: Grade B

Shutting off government spending was always going to hurt.  But one needs to understand who is getting hurt and to what extent they can afford that hurt.  It’s our own fault that we have made so many so dependent on government funded programs.  It’s going to take some time to work our way out of this mess.  And there is plenty that can be cut before we get down to muscle and bone.  With some of these orders, it feels a bit like we are throwing out the baby with the bath water just to make a point. 

_The Great DEI Rollback: Grade C

The extremes of DEI were already fading before Trump took office. Now Trump (and many Red States) are in danger of swinging the pendulum too far in the other direction.  It would have been better to deal with specific DEI abuses through established legal channels and continue to let the market discipline virtue-signaling companies. 

_Tariffs: Grade D

The only thing that keeps this from being an “F” is that there are certain situations where tariffs make sense.  But they should only be used infrequently and precisely.  In general, tariffs have historically proven to be bad economic policy.  They will turn up the dial on inflation, hurt exports and create shortages of certain products. U.S. consumers will pay the price for higher tariffs and whatever benefits ultimately come from them will not justify the costs.

_On The Border: Grade B

As long as the focus is on removing the bad people who have slipped in over the past 4 years, the grade is an “A”.  But take it too far and start deporting anyone who is here illegally, even if they have been here for years, have family here and have been productively working here; then it’s not going to turn out well.  We simply cannot afford to lose this much of our workforce.  I am hopeful there will be as much attention on reforming our immigration laws as there seems to be on rounding up and removing undocumented immigrants.

 

Trade-Offs

 

“There are no solutions, only trade-offs.” – Thomas Sowell

Thomas Sowell gets most things right.  And he was spot on with this comment.  He was making the point that when intellectuals, the so-called “Elite”, presume to know what’s best and prescribe remedies that will “solve” the ills of society or end all wars or save the planet; they tend to focus primarily on the benefits of their choices, underestimating the costs and failing to prepare for the unintended consequences of their actions.

While Progressives seem to fall into this trap more often than conservatives, by no means have they cornered the market when it comes to tunnel vision and bad ideas.  The Neo-Cons dream of establishing democracies in the Middle East comes to mind.  And today far-right conservatives tend to ignore the costly trade-offs and unintended consequences of their policies on such things as abortion rights and immigration, forgetting that “the perfect is the enemy of the good”.

California is the poster child for ignoring the trade-offs attendant with their decisions.  For decades their Progressive politicians have been on a mission to solve every environmental issue, real or imagined, large or small with the result being the disastrous failure to effectively prevent and manage wildfire events. Protecting all living things may seem like the pinnacle of virtue, but at what cost?  There are no solutions, only trade-offs.

As Donald Trump and his team take the field in Washington they would do well to remember “the trade-offs”.  Trade-offs regarding such things as tariffs, immigration reform, reducing government spending, making deals with Russia or attempting to establish peace in the Middle East.  Even “drill baby drill”, as good as it may sound, comes with tradeoffs.

Unfortunately, politicians do not get re-elected by taking a balanced approach and honestly presenting the trade-offs associated with various policy initiatives.  These days the favored approach is to go all-in, tell your constituents what they want to hear, ignore the trade-offs… and when things go wrong, just blame the other Party while preparing for the next election.

My Two Cents Worth....2025... A Not So Happy New Year

 

Happy New Year? Perhaps not. 2025 is off to a rough start to say the least.

 

_1 The New Orleans terrorist attack was tragic but should come as no surprise. This is the world we live in. Wherever two or more are gathered we must elevate security measures well beyond those currently being taken in most places. We know that suicidal evildoers will drive cars and trucks into crowds; or strap explosives on to their bodies and blow up themselves and everyone nearby; or being armed with guns or knives start killing as many as possible until they are stopped.  There is no end to the violence fanatics will resort to if they are willing to die for a cause.

 

_2 A couple of major winter storms have already disrupted work and travel for millions of us. Thankfully we’ve not had a repeat of the 2021 power failure here in Texas, but winter is just getting started.  We’ve already received the most snowfall in over a decade.

 

_3 In a matter of days, a convicted felon will be sworn in as the 47^th President of the United States.  Say what you will about their misguided “lawfare” attacks, Democrats were able to salvage the “convicted felon” nugget for their efforts.  Even if Trump’s conviction is over-turned on appeal, Democrats will forever attach the “convicted felon” label to his Presidency.

 

_4 Wind and Fire combined with California’s progressive political leadership has resulted in what will be the most expensive “natural” disaster in the history of this country. That Southern California will have wildfires is inevitable. Wildfires were there before “Global Warming” and will be there when the next Ice Age rolls around. That California’s leadership has failed to take the necessary steps to mitigate the risk is unforgivable. That California voters will double-down on radical environmentalism and progressive ideologies is, unfortunately, more than likely.

 

_5 With “The YMCA” echoing in the background “CYA-ism” is in full swing.  Mark Zuckerberg's journey of confession before Congress and with podcasters such as Joe Rogan rings a bit hollow to those who have known for years that his social media empire has been aiding and abetting Democrats’ efforts to promote their agendas and silence their critics. I expect Mr. Zuckerberg’s awakening and conversion will last at least until the next Democrat is elected President.

 

“What has been will be again. What has been done will be done again. There is nothing new under the sun.” – Ecclesiastes 1:9