Trade-Offs

 

“There are no solutions, only trade-offs.” – Thomas Sowell

Thomas Sowell gets most things right.  And he was spot on with this comment.  He was making the point that when intellectuals, the so-called “Elite”, presume to know what’s best and prescribe remedies that will “solve” the ills of society or end all wars or save the planet; they tend to focus primarily on the benefits of their choices, underestimating the costs and failing to prepare for the unintended consequences of their actions.

While Progressives seem to fall into this trap more often than conservatives, by no means have they cornered the market when it comes to tunnel vision and bad ideas.  The Neo-Cons dream of establishing democracies in the Middle East comes to mind.  And today far-right conservatives tend to ignore the costly trade-offs and unintended consequences of their policies on such things as abortion rights and immigration, forgetting that “the perfect is the enemy of the good”.

California is the poster child for ignoring the trade-offs attendant with their decisions.  For decades their Progressive politicians have been on a mission to solve every environmental issue, real or imagined, large or small with the result being the disastrous failure to effectively prevent and manage wildfire events. Protecting all living things may seem like the pinnacle of virtue, but at what cost?  There are no solutions, only trade-offs.

As Donald Trump and his team take the field in Washington they would do well to remember “the trade-offs”.  Trade-offs regarding such things as tariffs, immigration reform, reducing government spending, making deals with Russia or attempting to establish peace in the Middle East.  Even “drill baby drill”, as good as it may sound, comes with tradeoffs.

Unfortunately, politicians do not get re-elected by taking a balanced approach and honestly presenting the trade-offs associated with various policy initiatives.  These days the favored approach is to go all-in, tell your constituents what they want to hear, ignore the trade-offs… and when things go wrong, just blame the other Party while preparing for the next election.

My Two Cents Worth....2025... A Not So Happy New Year

 

Happy New Year? Perhaps not. 2025 is off to a rough start to say the least.

 

_1 The New Orleans terrorist attack was tragic but should come as no surprise. This is the world we live in. Wherever two or more are gathered we must elevate security measures well beyond those currently being taken in most places. We know that suicidal evildoers will drive cars and trucks into crowds; or strap explosives on to their bodies and blow up themselves and everyone nearby; or being armed with guns or knives start killing as many as possible until they are stopped.  There is no end to the violence fanatics will resort to if they are willing to die for a cause.

 

_2 A couple of major winter storms have already disrupted work and travel for millions of us. Thankfully we’ve not had a repeat of the 2021 power failure here in Texas, but winter is just getting started.  We’ve already received the most snowfall in over a decade.

 

_3 In a matter of days, a convicted felon will be sworn in as the 47^th President of the United States.  Say what you will about their misguided “lawfare” attacks, Democrats were able to salvage the “convicted felon” nugget for their efforts.  Even if Trump’s conviction is over-turned on appeal, Democrats will forever attach the “convicted felon” label to his Presidency.

 

_4 Wind and Fire combined with California’s progressive political leadership has resulted in what will be the most expensive “natural” disaster in the history of this country. That Southern California will have wildfires is inevitable. Wildfires were there before “Global Warming” and will be there when the next Ice Age rolls around. That California’s leadership has failed to take the necessary steps to mitigate the risk is unforgivable. That California voters will double-down on radical environmentalism and progressive ideologies is, unfortunately, more than likely.

 

_5 With “The YMCA” echoing in the background “CYA-ism” is in full swing.  Mark Zuckerberg's journey of confession before Congress and with podcasters such as Joe Rogan rings a bit hollow to those who have known for years that his social media empire has been aiding and abetting Democrats’ efforts to promote their agendas and silence their critics. I expect Mr. Zuckerberg’s awakening and conversion will last at least until the next Democrat is elected President.

 

“What has been will be again. What has been done will be done again. There is nothing new under the sun.” – Ecclesiastes 1:9

Three Points of Contact

Safety experts tell us that when climbing a ladder always maintain three points of contact: two hands and one foot on the ladder or one hand and two feet.  If one has less than three points of contact with the ladder they are very likely to fall. 

 The “Three Points of Contact” rule applies to more than just climbing a ladder.  Whether one is baking a pie, building a house or attempting to reduce government spending; it requires information, understanding and action.  More specifically it requires accurate and timely information, proper understanding and the correct action.  Get any one of these three wrong and your pie taste awful, or your house is unlivable or your economy goes in the tank.  While no person, group or country gets it right every time; those who get it right more often than not end up doing much better than those who mostly get it wrong. 

 And even those who get it right most of the time can lose it all with one really bad decision; the Titanic comes to mind in that regard.  In fact, the Titanic is a classic example of a disaster when those in charge get it wrong.  They had information, mostly timely and accurate except for one major piece of misinformation.  The Titanic was not unsinkable. From that point on they lacked a proper understanding of the risks and their action was to continue on course.  In the aftermath, other miscommunications and operational failures have been judged as factors in the great ship going down.  How one chooses to sort it all out, it remains that misinformation, misunderstanding and incorrect actions sunk the Titanic.  The iceberg was just being an iceberg and got in the way.

If we are honest with ourselves, we have all had those Titanic moments, some in our personal lives and some in our in our professional endeavors.  The ones we most regret are those where we actually had the correct information and understood what was at stake, but chose the incorrect action. We thought we knew better or perhaps we just wanted that "rush"...hold my beer, watch this...as I fall off the ladder.

 

2025...Get Your Popcorn Ready

 

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”- Yogi Berra

I scaled back to only 5 predictions for 2024 and still the results were at best mediocre. And I really missed on The Election which was the biggie.  Here are those predictions and the grades:

2024 Predictions

 _1 The economy shows some improvement driven by lower energy costs and a mid-year interest rate cut.

Grade C+.  The first half of the year was much worse than predicted. The second half was about as predicted.

 _2 Trump/Haney lose to Biden/not Harris in a very close election.  (The Democrats must come up with a viable running mate for Biden given the likelihood that he cannot remain upright for four more years.) Republicans are fighting an uphill battle.  Younger people, BIPOCs and single women will overwhelmingly vote Democrat.  The abortion issue will be a major factor in this election. Whatever the outcome, the loser will go ballistic.

Grade F: I am happy to admit that it wasn’t even close on this prediction. 

 _3 The Israeli-Palestinian crisis continues triggering terrorists’ attacks on European and American targets. This is going to get very ugly.

Grade B: The crisis continues, but with fewer attacks abroad than I feared.

 _4 Trump’s legal battles drag on as do Hunter Biden’s. This too shall pass.

Grade B:  Mostly accurate, but Biden’s blanket pardon of his son knocks this one back to a B at best.

_5 Over in the toy department, Alabama wins another Natty and the 49ers win the Super Bowl.  Paris hosts the 2024 Olympics. It turns out to be more of a Tik-Tok event than a television event. Advertisers, networks and nations lose vast sums of money on the Olympics. Eventually, the world will decide to just let Greece have the Summer Olympics and Switzerland the Winter Olympics on a permanent basis.

Grade: C. Total miss on the college championship.  At least the 49ers got to the Super Bowl, but glad that the Chiefs found a way to win. I would grade my prediction on the Olympics as “A”.

 

Drum Roll…now the 2025 Predictions:

_1 The economy continues to improve, but it’s not going to be a “boom”.  The skilled labor market remains tight. The Trump Tariff program, while not as extreme as threatened, will still have a negative effect in the short run. Given that inflation remains a concern, interest rate cuts will be modest and few. The DOGE project, if successful, will be another drag on the economy for the next few years.  It’s the right thing to do but it comes at a price. Lower energy costs and less government regulation/interference will be good things for the economy.

_2 Another economic factor will be a big story in 2025 and that is the Labor Movement.  The Trump administration will do many things that business leaders will applaud.  But restraining the labor movement is not one of them.  Both parties acknowledge the ever-increasing frustration and anger throughout the working class.  Washington will pressure business to make concessions and put more money in workers’ pockets.  This creates more inflationary pressure, but I sense that we’ve reached the tipping point where labor is demanding better pay, better benefits and better working conditions...or else. 

_3 European countries along with Canada will continue to shift to the right. The most immediate impact of this will be a pull-back on the Green Agenda.  Citizens in countries which have gone all in on reducing the use of fossil fuels are simply paying too much for energy and getting too little in return.  

_4 Immigration will continue to be a major issue around the world and another factor pushing Western Nations further to the right.  Open borders are over.  While industrialized countries desperately need immigrant labor, their citizens are tired of subsidizing immigrants who will not or cannot contribute and/or refuse to assimilate into their new country of residence.

_5 Now to the really important stuff…the world of sports.  I’m liking the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl.  Their opponent: the Detroit Lions.  The college football national champion: Oregon beats Notre Dame.  The Dodgers repeat winning the World Series again.  As part of the DOGE Project, the NCAA loses its non-profit status and goes out of business.  All college athletes join the Teamsters.

(2025 is the Year of the Wood Snake on the Chinese Calendar.  Last Wood Snake Year was 1965...great year for music and automobiles.)

Holiday Season? … Nah It’s Christmas

 

At the risk of offending those who do not wish to acknowledge, much less celebrate the Messiah’s birth, I wish one and all a very Merry Christmas.  Yes, I know that Jesus was not born on December 25^th.   We don’t even know the exact year, much less the month and date.  The story is long that which leads us to celebrating Christmas on December 25^th.  Just one more example of an attempt to make God in man’s image. 

 

More importantly, as Christians we believe the Gospel reports regarding the birth of Jesus.  The details are sketchy and two of the Gospels don’t even bother to tell the story.  Matthew and Luke do tell of Jesus’ birth, Luke being the most comprehensive. Mark, generally considered the oldest of the Gospels, doesn’t even mention it.  The closest John’s gospel comes to mentioning the birth of Jesus is that “The Word became flesh and dwelt among us”; which to Christians is the most important part of the story.

 

Over 30 years after his birth, the Gospels' details of the Lord’s last days, crucifixion and resurrection are not exactly the same either.  But the message is consistent.  Jesus Christ died by crucifixion, rose from the grave and appeared to his followers for 40 days before ascending to heaven.  Jewish and Roman authorities had nothing to gain and everything to lose if the story was true.  There were simply too many witnesses and too much evidence to quash it.  The more followers of The Way they killed, the more it grew, eventually even converting a Roman Emperor.  

 

Today over 30% of the Earth’s population are Christians.  Are they all true believers?  Of course not, and the same can be said of all religions.  Christianity may well be the messiest, most fragmented of them all.  How could it be otherwise?  It was not God’s intention to create another religion even though he knew we would try to do just that.  But despite our best efforts and those of the devil himself, millions of souls have been saved and God’s will has and is being done on earth as it is in heaven.

 

That we don’t have a detailed biography of Jesus’ birth, life and death is of no consequence to those of us who believe.  In fact, if all the Gospels were exactly the same in every detail, they would be even less credible.  How God inspired those who wrote the Holy Scriptures remains a mystery.  In the end, you either accept it or you don’t.

 

Merry Christmas to us all; God bless us, every one. 

The Ghosts of Christmas '44

 

It’s late December 1944.  The 101^st Airborne is surrounded and under siege in a place called Bastogne.  A 19 year-old Texan cleans his M-1 Garand rifle, counts his ammunition and sharpens his bayonet; preparing for the last stand.  His General has already rejected the Germans’ surrender demand with one word: “Nuts”.  There would be no surrender.  The Battle of the Bulge had come down to this place and this time at a strategic crossroads town in Belgium.

A few Belgian citizens had remained in Bastogne.  On Christmas Eve they opened their homes to the men of the 101^st.  After a modest meal and perhaps a glass of wine, together they prayed for strength and clear skies so Allied airplanes might come to the rescue.  Patton’s 3^rd Army was on the way, but could the 101^st hold on?  Someone read from the Bible and in the candlelight the soldiers sang Silent Night. Then gathering whatever courage they could muster went out into the cold darkness and back to the front lines.

My father was that 19 year-old Texan.  He had been wounded in Holland but made it back just in time for the Battle of the Bulge.  Like most combat soldiers, he had become a fatalist.  If it was his time to die, so be it. Obviously, he survived or I wouldn’t be here to write this. But he never really got over the war.  The ghosts of war haunted him until the day he died…perhaps most of all at Christmas.

 

“I will honor Christmas in my heart and try to keep it all the year. I will live in the Past, the Present and the Future.  The Spirits of all three shall strive within me.  I will not shut out the lessons that they teach.”- Charles Dickens

Unhealthy Politics

 

Last week we witnessed the horrific assassination of United Healthcare CEO, Brian Thompson. Regardless of how one might feel about health insurance providers, violence must be universally condemned. It’s not the answer.

 

But with that said, this tragic event has certainly elevated the conversation about the state of healthcare in America.  For years our politicians have vowed to fix the problem.  Progressives have their ideas and Conservatives have theirs.  They all shake their fists at Big Pharma, Big Insurance, Big Healthcare, Big Food and while they are casting stones; might as well thrown in Doctors and Lawyers just for good measure.

 

And while we the people root for one side or the other, nothing ever gets done. Why is that? One major factor, perhaps THE factor, is the vast amounts of special interest payoffs that go to the politicians themselves. The politicians and their families all have great insurance and healthcare. So, they don’t feel the physical, emotional and financial pain inflicted upon most of their constituents.  Moreover, our elected officials along with thousands of unelected bureaucrats reap the benefits, directly or indirectly, from the largesse of lobbyists and special interest groups.

 

In 2010, the Supreme Court ruled that the First Amendment prohibits the government from restricting independent expenditures for political campaigns by corporations including for-profit, non-profit organizations, labor unions and “other kinds of associations”.   And so, the floodgates were opened and most things have just gotten more expensive, especially Healthcare.  The Affordable Care Act added cost to the system most certainly.  Advances in medical technology and treatment tend to elevate costs as well. But when those with money are allowed to act without restraint in their own self-interest, someone must pay for it.  Welcome to American Healthcare 2024.

 

It is unlikely that politicians will pass any sort of legislation that reigns in special interest money or negatively impacts those who benefit the most from the status quo. What’s left on the table are two options that would change not only healthcare, but most things that are wrong in this country: TERM LIMITS and TRANSPARENCY.  You don’t kill the snake by cutting off its tail.  Take away the incentive for politicians to do whatever is necessary to stay in power and they might just be more inclined to make better decisions for “we the people”. 

 

Make no mistake, term limits alone will not solve the problem.  We would still have politicians begging for money while in office and seeking rewards when they leave office.   This is why transparency is necessary.  When shareholders, customers and competitors can “follow the money”, this puts market pressure on those who are providing the money as well as those who are accepting it.  As we’ve seen with consumer reaction to extreme DEI initiatives by corporations, when citizens choose not to buy what these companies are selling, the companies are forced to change. Term Limits and Transparency.  Until we get serious about these, the rest is just smoke and mirrors.