2025...Get Your Popcorn Ready

 

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”- Yogi Berra

I scaled back to only 5 predictions for 2024 and still the results were at best mediocre. And I really missed on The Election which was the biggie.  Here are those predictions and the grades:

2024 Predictions

 _1 The economy shows some improvement driven by lower energy costs and a mid-year interest rate cut.

Grade C+.  The first half of the year was much worse than predicted. The second half was about as predicted.

 _2 Trump/Haney lose to Biden/not Harris in a very close election.  (The Democrats must come up with a viable running mate for Biden given the likelihood that he cannot remain upright for four more years.) Republicans are fighting an uphill battle.  Younger people, BIPOCs and single women will overwhelmingly vote Democrat.  The abortion issue will be a major factor in this election. Whatever the outcome, the loser will go ballistic.

Grade F: I am happy to admit that it wasn’t even close on this prediction. 

 _3 The Israeli-Palestinian crisis continues triggering terrorists’ attacks on European and American targets. This is going to get very ugly.

Grade B: The crisis continues, but with fewer attacks abroad than I feared.

 _4 Trump’s legal battles drag on as do Hunter Biden’s. This too shall pass.

Grade B:  Mostly accurate, but Biden’s blanket pardon of his son knocks this one back to a B at best.

_5 Over in the toy department, Alabama wins another Natty and the 49ers win the Super Bowl.  Paris hosts the 2024 Olympics. It turns out to be more of a Tik-Tok event than a television event. Advertisers, networks and nations lose vast sums of money on the Olympics. Eventually, the world will decide to just let Greece have the Summer Olympics and Switzerland the Winter Olympics on a permanent basis.

Grade: C. Total miss on the college championship.  At least the 49ers got to the Super Bowl, but glad that the Chiefs found a way to win. I would grade my prediction on the Olympics as “A”.

 

Drum Roll…now the 2025 Predictions:

_1 The economy continues to improve, but it’s not going to be a “boom”.  The skilled labor market remains tight. The Trump Tariff program, while not as extreme as threatened, will still have a negative effect in the short run. Given that inflation remains a concern, interest rate cuts will be modest and few. The DOGE project, if successful, will be another drag on the economy for the next few years.  It’s the right thing to do but it comes at a price. Lower energy costs and less government regulation/interference will be good things for the economy.

_2 Another economic factor will be a big story in 2025 and that is the Labor Movement.  The Trump administration will do many things that business leaders will applaud.  But restraining the labor movement is not one of them.  Both parties acknowledge the ever-increasing frustration and anger throughout the working class.  Washington will pressure business to make concessions and put more money in workers’ pockets.  This creates more inflationary pressure, but I sense that we’ve reached the tipping point where labor is demanding better pay, better benefits and better working conditions...or else. 

_3 European countries along with Canada will continue to shift to the right. The most immediate impact of this will be a pull-back on the Green Agenda.  Citizens in countries which have gone all in on reducing the use of fossil fuels are simply paying too much for energy and getting too little in return.  

_4 Immigration will continue to be a major issue around the world and another factor pushing Western Nations further to the right.  Open borders are over.  While industrialized countries desperately need immigrant labor, their citizens are tired of subsidizing immigrants who will not or cannot contribute and/or refuse to assimilate into their new country of residence.

_5 Now to the really important stuff…the world of sports.  I’m liking the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl.  Their opponent: the Detroit Lions.  The college football national champion: Oregon beats Notre Dame.  The Dodgers repeat winning the World Series again.  As part of the DOGE Project, the NCAA loses its non-profit status and goes out of business.  All college athletes join the Teamsters.

(2025 is the Year of the Wood Snake on the Chinese Calendar.  Last Wood Snake Year was 1965...great year for music and automobiles.)

Holiday Season? … Nah It’s Christmas

 

At the risk of offending those who do not wish to acknowledge, much less celebrate the Messiah’s birth, I wish one and all a very Merry Christmas.  Yes, I know that Jesus was not born on December 25^th.   We don’t even know the exact year, much less the month and date.  The story is long that which leads us to celebrating Christmas on December 25^th.  Just one more example of an attempt to make God in man’s image. 

 

More importantly, as Christians we believe the Gospel reports regarding the birth of Jesus.  The details are sketchy and two of the Gospels don’t even bother to tell the story.  Matthew and Luke do tell of Jesus’ birth, Luke being the most comprehensive. Mark, generally considered the oldest of the Gospels, doesn’t even mention it.  The closest John’s gospel comes to mentioning the birth of Jesus is that “The Word became flesh and dwelt among us”; which to Christians is the most important part of the story.

 

Over 30 years after his birth, the Gospels' details of the Lord’s last days, crucifixion and resurrection are not exactly the same either.  But the message is consistent.  Jesus Christ died by crucifixion, rose from the grave and appeared to his followers for 40 days before ascending to heaven.  Jewish and Roman authorities had nothing to gain and everything to lose if the story was true.  There were simply too many witnesses and too much evidence to quash it.  The more followers of The Way they killed, the more it grew, eventually even converting a Roman Emperor.  

 

Today over 30% of the Earth’s population are Christians.  Are they all true believers?  Of course not, and the same can be said of all religions.  Christianity may well be the messiest, most fragmented of them all.  How could it be otherwise?  It was not God’s intention to create another religion even though he knew we would try to do just that.  But despite our best efforts and those of the devil himself, millions of souls have been saved and God’s will has and is being done on earth as it is in heaven.

 

That we don’t have a detailed biography of Jesus’ birth, life and death is of no consequence to those of us who believe.  In fact, if all the Gospels were exactly the same in every detail, they would be even less credible.  How God inspired those who wrote the Holy Scriptures remains a mystery.  In the end, you either accept it or you don’t.

 

Merry Christmas to us all; God bless us, every one. 

The Ghosts of Christmas '44

 

It’s late December 1944.  The 101^st Airborne is surrounded and under siege in a place called Bastogne.  A 19 year-old Texan cleans his M-1 Garand rifle, counts his ammunition and sharpens his bayonet; preparing for the last stand.  His General has already rejected the Germans’ surrender demand with one word: “Nuts”.  There would be no surrender.  The Battle of the Bulge had come down to this place and this time at a strategic crossroads town in Belgium.

A few Belgian citizens had remained in Bastogne.  On Christmas Eve they opened their homes to the men of the 101^st.  After a modest meal and perhaps a glass of wine, together they prayed for strength and clear skies so Allied airplanes might come to the rescue.  Patton’s 3^rd Army was on the way, but could the 101^st hold on?  Someone read from the Bible and in the candlelight the soldiers sang Silent Night. Then gathering whatever courage they could muster went out into the cold darkness and back to the front lines.

My father was that 19 year-old Texan.  He had been wounded in Holland but made it back just in time for the Battle of the Bulge.  Like most combat soldiers, he had become a fatalist.  If it was his time to die, so be it. Obviously, he survived or I wouldn’t be here to write this. But he never really got over the war.  The ghosts of war haunted him until the day he died…perhaps most of all at Christmas.

 

“I will honor Christmas in my heart and try to keep it all the year. I will live in the Past, the Present and the Future.  The Spirits of all three shall strive within me.  I will not shut out the lessons that they teach.”- Charles Dickens

Unhealthy Politics

 

Last week we witnessed the horrific assassination of United Healthcare CEO, Brian Thompson. Regardless of how one might feel about health insurance providers, violence must be universally condemned. It’s not the answer.

 

But with that said, this tragic event has certainly elevated the conversation about the state of healthcare in America.  For years our politicians have vowed to fix the problem.  Progressives have their ideas and Conservatives have theirs.  They all shake their fists at Big Pharma, Big Insurance, Big Healthcare, Big Food and while they are casting stones; might as well thrown in Doctors and Lawyers just for good measure.

 

And while we the people root for one side or the other, nothing ever gets done. Why is that? One major factor, perhaps THE factor, is the vast amounts of special interest payoffs that go to the politicians themselves. The politicians and their families all have great insurance and healthcare. So, they don’t feel the physical, emotional and financial pain inflicted upon most of their constituents.  Moreover, our elected officials along with thousands of unelected bureaucrats reap the benefits, directly or indirectly, from the largesse of lobbyists and special interest groups.

 

In 2010, the Supreme Court ruled that the First Amendment prohibits the government from restricting independent expenditures for political campaigns by corporations including for-profit, non-profit organizations, labor unions and “other kinds of associations”.   And so, the floodgates were opened and most things have just gotten more expensive, especially Healthcare.  The Affordable Care Act added cost to the system most certainly.  Advances in medical technology and treatment tend to elevate costs as well. But when those with money are allowed to act without restraint in their own self-interest, someone must pay for it.  Welcome to American Healthcare 2024.

 

It is unlikely that politicians will pass any sort of legislation that reigns in special interest money or negatively impacts those who benefit the most from the status quo. What’s left on the table are two options that would change not only healthcare, but most things that are wrong in this country: TERM LIMITS and TRANSPARENCY.  You don’t kill the snake by cutting off its tail.  Take away the incentive for politicians to do whatever is necessary to stay in power and they might just be more inclined to make better decisions for “we the people”. 

 

Make no mistake, term limits alone will not solve the problem.  We would still have politicians begging for money while in office and seeking rewards when they leave office.   This is why transparency is necessary.  When shareholders, customers and competitors can “follow the money”, this puts market pressure on those who are providing the money as well as those who are accepting it.  As we’ve seen with consumer reaction to extreme DEI initiatives by corporations, when citizens choose not to buy what these companies are selling, the companies are forced to change. Term Limits and Transparency.  Until we get serious about these, the rest is just smoke and mirrors.

  

My Two Cents Worth…The Thanksgiving Edition

 

It’s been almost two months since my last “Two Cents Worth” ramble.  I’ve written posts related to health, hurricanes, the wisdom of Thomas Sowell and, of course, THE election…you know the one to end all elections.  But now it’s once again time for a little stream-of-consciousness.

 

_The economy was already improving, albeit slowly, before the election.  With the election over, it’s accelerated.  Some of it perhaps resulting from the outcome.  But as much or more from just being done with the whole mess; definitely something for which we should all be thankful.

 

_Add Wal-Mart to the growing list of corporations scaling back on DEI initiatives.  The move away from DEI was well underway before the election.  But the results of the election amplified the message to companies that many of us, perhaps most of us, are just interested in buying their products and services… without the far-left gift wrapping.  So, I am thankful that companies have come to their senses and are stepping back from identity politics.  But at the same time, I sincerely hope they will continue to offer meaningful job opportunities and career advancement without regard to race, ethnicity, gender, age or any of the stuff that does not nor should not matter.

 

_The Yellowstone saga has returned and frankly seems a bit worn and past its due date.  I’ll watch it, but with regret that it didn’t end sooner with the original cast still intact (spoiler alert).  On the other hand, Landman is a winner.  Billy Bob Thornton is great, but the real star of the show is Texas, more specifically West and North Texas.  I am thankful that I was born and raised here; and had the chance to see a little bit of it before it got paved over.  God Bless Texas.

 

_Our hot and dry Fall weather is predicted to continue through the Winter.  That being the case we are in for an ugly wildfire season which could well begin before the end of this year.  I am thankful that we got a little rain a couple of weeks ago and I am even more thankful that we have some pretty good firefighters around these parts.

 

_I think, I hope, that Trump’s tariff threats are just deal-making moves.  I expect he will impose some tariffs just to make a point, or where the trade being conducted is clearly unfair and not in our best interest.  But he realizes that the tariff actions he took during his first term had a negative impact on our economy.  And right now, with low unemployment and inflation still a concern, the last thing we need are tariffs that would increase consumer prices. We’re simply not in position to meet consumer demand with domestic production.  Rebuilding our manufacturing base will take years.  In the meantime, we need global supply to meet U.S. demand.  And we should all be thankful that Malcolm McLean invented modern intermodal containerized shipping back in the day.

 

_Most important, I am thankful for God’s grace and forgiveness… and sacrifice.  In this Thanksgiving season I will leave you with this from the Apostle Paul’s letter to the church in Thessalonica:

 

“Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you.” 1 Thessalonians 5: 16-18

The Election Is Over… (stop spiking the ball and pointing fingers)

 

I am so glad the election is over.  Now if the Republicans, Democrats and their talking heads would just shut up and move on.  Alright already, we get it.  MAGA won and the map is painted red.  This is a pivotal moment in human history.  Hurray for God and Country and Freedom.  In your face CNN, MSNBC and The View.  The New York Times can suck it.  Joe Rogan rules.  Elon Musk for Man of the Year.  Yes, we said man, not person. Fight, Fight, Fight.

 

Or there is the other side.  How could “they” elect a “convicted felon”? Trump is a threat to democracy.  The red state people are misogynistic, homophobic, transphobic, racist, climate change denying Neanderthals.  If only Biden had dropped out long before the primaries.  This is a sad day for America.  How could Black men and Hispanics betray us like this.  Why would any woman vote for Trump?  And no matter what the red state people and Fox News say, we aren’t “woke”.  That is so last decade.

 

Am I exaggerating? I think not.  A plea to my fellow Americans:  It’s time for the winning team to stop spiking the ball and taunting their opponent; and the side that lost needs to accept the outcome, quit making excuses and do better next time.  Both sides, meaning all of us, would do well to show some class.  If only we only had some. 

 

(And I should probably take my own advice and just post pics of dogs, mountains and sunsets….I’ll think about it.)

Wrong Again....Thank God

A week before the election I went on the record predicting that Harris would win.  I sighted six reasons for that prediction:

_1. The polls were undercounting younger voters who were likely to vote Democrat.  So, Trump wasn’t as close to Harris as the polls predicted.

_2. The abortion issue would be a major factor in this election and the majority of women voters were against Trump.

_3. The mainstream media’s constant assault on Trump and championing Harris was tilting the scales in the Democrats’ favor.

_4. On balance Democrats have performed somewhat better in Presidential elections than Republicans since 1992.  In a close race against a polarizing candidate like Trump, the Democrats would likely win.

_5. The Red Wave that was predicted in 2022 did not happen, largely due to a rejection of Trump-backed candidates.

_6. The Democrats know how to get out their voters in the places where it matters the most.  The Republicans just didn’t have as good of a “ground game” as the Democrats.

Thankfully, I was wrong; and it wasn’t even close.  So, what happened?

_More young people voted for Trump than expected. The majority still went for Harris, but not to the degree expected.  In particular, a lot of younger men voted for Trump.

_The abortion issue was not a match for the economy and immigration issues.  Harris still got a lot of votes from women and in particular Pro-Choice women voters.  But it was not enough to offset the voters who considered the economy (mostly inflation) and immigration as the critical issues.

_The mainstream media’s attacks on Trump backfired.  The same can be said for the “lawfare” used against Trump.  These efforts may have resonated with the Progressive Democrat core, but moderates, independents, working class and first-time voters didn’t buy it.

_The Democrats ran a terrible campaign with a terrible ticket.  As a result there was no advantage based on their historical performance in Presidential elections, the mid-term Red Wave that wasn’t or their traditional turnout the votes “ground game”.  In fact, the Republicans beat them at their own game when it came to turning out the votes.

So, I am glad that I was wrong.  I am not a Trump fan, always voted for someone else in the primaries.  But I am a “right-leaning” moderate which puts me a long way from the Democrats who have embraced so many far-left policies. Therefore, I vote Republican.  Call it self-interest or self-defense.

I am hopeful that we are seeing a fundamental shift away from woke-ism, identity politics and radical ideologies. The Republicans may not Make America Great Again, but it’s certain Democrats have proven they can make it worse.

The Vision of the Anointed

 

What follows is a review of Thomas Sowell’s masterpiece “The Vision of The Anointed”.  The review was written in 1995 by Dr. Robert P. George who at that time was an associate professor of politics at Princeton University. 

WHY do liberals and conservatives assess the same social facts so differently? The answer, Thomas Sowell suggests, is that liberals and conservatives differ in their perception of the facts. The difference, in other words, is one of vision.

"The crucial role of vision," Sowell argues, "is that it enables a vast range of beliefs to be regarded as presumptively true until definitively disproved by unchallengeable evidence." Liberals --or, to use Sowell's disparaging label, "the anointed" -- view the world as "a very tidy place," where "prescient politicians can 'invest' tax dollars in 'the industries of the future,' where criminals can be 'rehabilitated,' irresponsible mothers taught 'parenting skills,' and where all sorts of other social problems can be 'solved."' All this is possible, as liberals see things, because human nature, as a "social construct," is far more malleable than most people imagine. Thus, in the vision of the anointed, "there is obviously a very expansive role for government and for the anointed in prescribing what government should do."

Sowell contrasts the vision of the anointed with "the tragic vision" of conservatives. What is "tragic" about this vision is that it assumes that problems such as crime, poverty, and irresponsibility cannot finally be "solved." Conservatives, recognizing that "there are no solutions, only trade-offs," do not go in for grand schemes to put an end to poverty, for example, or make health care a fundamental right, or pursue what Sowell derisively calls "cosmic justice." It is not that conservatives are happy that some people are poor, or without health insurance, or whatever. Nor, for that matter, are they complacent about it. Rather, they realize that liberal schemes to eradicate these evils a) never work, and b) inevitably impose huge social costs of their own.

Thus, conservatives are skeptical of large-scale government programs and bureaucracies and are inclined to rely instead on institutions of civil society, such as families, churches, and neighborhood associations, to accomplish what can be accomplished in the areas of health, education, and welfare. Conservatives are hostile to big government not only because it fails to accomplish its utopian goals, but also because it compromises or displaces religious and other subsidiary institutions which have at least some hope of helping people to escape from poverty, rehabilitate themselves from a life of crime, or improve themselves in other ways. Those, like Sowell, with the tragic vision fault those with the vision of the anointed for making the unattainable ideal "the enemy of the good."

Sowell understands the contest of visions to be a longstanding one in Western culture. Godwin, Condorcet, and Mill all shared the vision of the anointed. Burke and the American Founders possessed the tragic vision. Sowell notes that in our own day "most of the leading contemporary opponents of the prevailing vision were themselves formerly within its orbit." He begins the list with Milton Friedman, F. A. von Hayek, Karl Popper, Edward Banfield, Irving Kristol, and Norman Podhoretz. One notable difference between those with the vision of the anointed and those with the tragic vision is that it tends to be the latter who recognize the role of vision in the first place. "To the anointed, their vision and reality are one and the same. Yet the world inside their mind has few of the harsh constraints of the world inhabited by millions of other human beings."

Sowell's account of vision and its role in political life and the creation of social policy helps to explain the tendency of contemporary elites to shift power from the people and their elected representatives to electorally unaccountable bureaucrats and judges. In the vision of the anointed, most people, in as much as they fail to share that vision, are more or less benighted. As such, they simply cannot be trusted to exercise political power justly or, for that matter, to judge accurately their own interests.

Fast Forwarding

 

Patience has never been one of my virtues.  I continue to work on it and have gotten better with age.  But I still don’t do well standing in long-lines or being stuck in a traffic jam or waiting for some dawdling gate attendant to move the ramp up to the plane so I can move on to the baggage claim area and wait some more. I also have no patience for boring speeches.  If you have something important to say, get to the point.  And if it’s not important, don’t waste my time.

 

I have come to believe that my lack of patience and overall sense of urgency are the result of being an only child as well as genetics.  An only child tends to march to the beat of their own drum. And if left alone and given enough personal freedom, they often grow up to have little patience when things don’t go their way.  Mea Culpa.

 

At one point back in the day, I pretty much gave up on watching television. The commercials were just too much of an interruption and waste of time.  If it was a really good 30-minute sit-com, I might suffer through the commercials.  Other shows might get recorded and played back later.  I could watch sports if it was an important game or my favorite team was playing.  But most of my television time was spent watching movie rentals from Blockbuster. 

 

And then came digital recording and streaming services.  It’s just too easy to record a football game and then watch it in less than an hour by fast forwarding through the commercials and half time. And if one is willing to fast forward between plays, rewinding if something big happens, one can watch a game in less than 30 minutes.  It’s even better with the sound off so one isn’t forced to listen to the play-by-play and those annoying comments by some former player or coach. With Prime, Netflix and Apple TV, I have even more choices.  I can watch what I want, when I want and how I want.  I don’t even have to fast forward through it.  And then there is You Tube which has something for everyone and it all moves along at a good pace.  If not, you can just fast forward through it or switch to something else. 

 

Now I find myself spending too much time watching television or on the internet. These days I seldom read a book until bedtime. Then I get sleepy.  So, it can take a month or more for me to get through a book. I have started listening to audiobooks while walking the dog, but it’s not the same as reading. I miss reading books.  Maybe I’ll try fast forward reading.  Read the first and last sentence of a paragraph. If it doesn’t seem to be consequential to the story, just move on to the next paragraph. I’m sure the author would not appreciate someone skipping over their thoughtful, well-crafted words.  But they will just have to settle for the fact that I did buy their book.

 

One of these days perhaps I will stop fast forwarding.  Maybe I will come to realize that I’m just rushing to the end and so much of what I’ve seen and done since the beginning didn’t really matter all that much.

Gone, Gone the Damage Done

The financial costs of hurricanes Helene and Milton will exceed anything we’ve experienced in a single hurricane season.  The loss of lives is also significant and still counting. For many survivors, their world has been turned upside down and may never recover.  This would certainly be the case in many mountain communities in Western North Carolina.  The devastation there is almost unimaginable.  Parts of the Florida Gulf Coast have been transformed.  Some residents have had enough and will move inland or out of the state.  Hurricanes are a reality for Florida and there will be more.

 

The politics of hurricanes and hurricane relief are in full swing.  The Right is pointing fingers at what they claim is a poor response.  That poor response being the result of federal agency incompetence along with too much money spent on immigrants and other nations.  The Left’s response is they are doing a good job and those who claim otherwise are misinformed or worse, spreading that misinformation.  The Left is also seizing on these disasters to once again make their case that human caused global warming, largely caused by fossil fuel, is the real problem.

 

At the risk of being labeled a “climate change denier”, it’s worth pointing to the data. This is a link to some very interesting data from the NOAA National Hurricane Center U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade (noaa.gov).  You can read it for yourself and reach your own conclusions, but I would draw your attention to the note just below the data records.

There are two sides to the hurricane story.  The mainstream version claims that even IF we are not having more hurricanes, we are having more major hurricanes. Again, the data to support that claim is questionable at best.  One thing is certain. Hurricanes are doing more damage now than in the past.  The same can be said of tornadoes and hailstorms and wildfires. Today there are simply more people and more structures in places where hurricanes (and tornadoes and hailstorms and wildfires) are most likely to hit.

The questions we must answer:

_1 How much has human activity contributed to climate change?

_2 How much can humans do now to change the climate to something more favorable?

_3 Should we spend more money trying to change the earth’s climate or spend more money preparing to live with the earth’s climate?

_4 And of course the most pressing question: What can we do for the folks who lost so much to Helene and Milton?

                                                             Galveston, Texas 1900

The Experts Can Be Wrong. (Perhaps more often than not).

 

A lot has been said and written about how the “experts” got things wrong about Covid.  Experts being wrong is not all that unusual.  In recent history the “experts” have been wrong about quite a few things.  For over 100 years the experts have been saying the world would soon run out of oil.  Eventually, we will…but it’s yet to happen “soon”.  The experts gave us the “food pyramid” back in the 1950’s and now the new experts are saying the old experts were wrong.  In the early 20^th century the experts were confident that eugenics was the path to a better, healthier, more intelligent human race.  That path only ended up in global war and genocide.  For over 100 years the experts have come up with various ideas on how to “fix” the Middle East.  Thus far they’ve only made it worse.  And I can remember when the experts just knew it was bad for players to drink water during August two-a-day football practices.

 

As one grows older one is likely to deal with a more “medical experts”.  Fortunately, they tend to be right most of the time.  Unfortunately, when they are wrong it can really hurt.  A case in point, in the summer of 2022 I was having some pain in my right hip.  We were looking forward to a trip to Italy in September, so I decided to go to my orthopedic doctor and get it checked out.  Maybe he could give me a shot.  Or perhaps he would tell me the hip was arthritic and would most likely need to be replaced within a year or two.  I was prepared for the worst but then got good news. After he X-rayed my hip, he concluded that I just had tight hamstrings and glutes.  So, he sent me to another expert, a Physical Therapist, who gave me a stretching routine and some tips on improving my posture.  Go now and be well.

 

Dutifully I did the stretching and worked on posture.  My hip responded by getting worse.  So, I doubled down on the stretching and good posture discipline.  My hip got worse and soon my entire leg started to hurt.  A week before we were to leave for Italy I could no longer stand or walk for more than 5 minutes.  So that trip was cancelled, at no small expense.

 

I went back to my ortho doctor and he took X-rays of my back this time and said there was a problem.  So, I ended up with a back and spine specialist.  More X-rays and an MRI revealed a slipped disc in my lower back along with stenosis.  Serious but not necessarily serious enough to justify surgery just yet.  So back to the Physical Therapist and some new exercises.  With rest and some light exercises there was improvement.  We added more exercises and it immediately got worse.

 

My wife criticizes me for going to the internet for medical advice, but sometimes it pays off.  I discovered that one of the exercises the PT had me doing was exactly what I should not be doing with a slipped disc.  So, I stopped going to the PT.  I continued with some of the other exercises avoiding the bad one or anything that resembled the bad one and quickly got better.

 

For two years I’ve been ok and continued with the stretching that the “experts”, including those on the internet, recommended.  But recently after two weeks in Alaska, my hip and leg began hurting again.  So, I did even more stretching of the leg and hip muscles.  And it got worse. 

 

Then I stumbled across another internet “expert”.   Based on his information, it just confirmed that this was sciatica caused by the back problem, even though my back did not hurt.  NO surprise there.  But, to my surprise, this “expert” advised that stretching the hamstring and hip muscles was a bad idea.  The stretches might feel good in the moment, but only served to irritate the sciatic nerve.  He advised a different routine focused more on strengthening the glutes and lower abs.  Within a week, my pain eased up considerably and I am back on the road to recovery.

 

Bottom line, for over two years I have been doing what the experts advised.  And after some adjustments I was doing ok, until I wasn’t.  I’m pretty sure some of our Alaskan adventures fired up the sciatica and all my efforts to calm it down only made it worse.  At some point I may need surgery to fix the slipped disc.  But for the time being I have found a better way to deal with it.  The experts might know a lot about what has worked or could work, but remember they can just as easily be wrong.   

Another Installment of My Two Cents Worth…Election Edition

_J.D. Vance clearly won the debate vs Tim Walz but count on Trump to undo whatever positive momentum Vance’s performance may have generated.

 

_Democrats have been in full reset mode since the Biden debate meltdown. Tighten up the borders, increase support for Israel, cut interest rates, release more oil from critical reserves, keep Joe Biden out of the public spotlight as much as possible and promote Kamala Harris as an Obama-like transformational leader who will bring joy and good tidings along with hope and change.

 

_Whatever the real story is about Lt. Gov Mark Robinson’s alleged porn posts, North Carolina has gone from a toss-up or slightly red, to leaning blue.  Trump needs to win North Carolina and that might not happen now.  The election comes down to AZ, NV, GA, WI, MI, PA and North Carolina.  These represent 93 electoral votes.  Trump needs at least 51 of those.  But PA is the key.  Assuming he wins AZ, NV, GA and NC he’s still 2 votes short of the necessary 270 to win.  If he were to lose NC, but capture PA, he could still win. 

 

_The economy, the border, the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine are all negatives for the Democrats. And depending how long it goes on; the East Coast Longshoremen’s Strike could turn things against them.  But the Democrats have two big things in their favor: Trump and abortion.  Trump-hate alone may be enough to push them over the line.  Throw in the abortion issue which is probably 60-40 in the Democrats favor and it’s likely enough to keep them in the White House.

 

_The sad truth is when you look at Trump/Vance, Harris/Wolz; three of those four could not even fill a high-level leadership role in a major corporation.  Vance is probably the only competent one in the bunch.  America must do better when it comes to developing and selecting government leaders.

CONSEQUENCES

 

“I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do I do not do, but what I hate I do.” – The Apostle Paul, Romans 7:15

In the context of Paul’s letter to the Christians in Rome, I certainly agree and can relate to what he’s saying here.  We must battle the world, the flesh and the devil if we are to follow Christ as He expects us to follow.  But when I consider what Paul says in this verse, I would amend it just a bit.  Indeed, people do what they may hate to do, but only after they’ve done it.  In the moment people do exactly what they want to do…or they wouldn’t do it.

 

You may argue that people do what they don’t want to do all the time because they have no choice.  But, people always have a choice.  Therefore, people often do what they don’t want to do even though they do have a choice. Your spouse asks you to take out the garbage.  You may not want to do it, but you have a choice…nonetheless, you better do it.  The alarm goes off Monday morning and you don’t want to get up and go to work. You want to stay in bed.  You have a choice.  What do you want more? To keep your job or stay in bed?  Ultimately you will do what you want to do in that moment.  That’s why some people don’t get up and some do.  In either case, the person is doing what they want to do.

 

People do what they want to do even when it’s not in their long-term best interest.  You say you don’t really want that second bowl of ice cream, but you’re lying to yourself.  You eat that second bowl because you want to eat it, and in that moment, you’re not seriously thinking about what’s best for you in the long-term.

 

People do all sorts of self-destructive things because they want to do it.  Drug addicts use drugs because they want to.  They want to because they are addicted.  They may hate what they are doing, but they are doing what they want to do.  And they have a choice.  It’s a hard, painful choice, but they do have a choice.  Young men join gangs and do bad things even though they may say they really didn’t want to.  No, they had choices.  None of those choices may be all that great or easy to make.  But they did what they wanted to do in the moment.

 

In today’s world we have made the mistake of telling people to make decisions based on their feelings.  You do you.  Live your truth.  What a crock.  There is right and there is wrong and if you don’t believe that, at least believe there are consequences.  You feel like taking out student loans to get a degree with little or no monetary value?  There are consequences.  A kid puts all their efforts into trying to become a highly paid professional athlete because that’s what they want to do and they choose not to get an education or have a plan B.  But things don't work out.  There are consequences.  A young girl wants to be loved and gets pregnant? Consequences.

 

You want people to do better? Make sure they understand the consequences of their actions.  The “Universe” doesn’t care what you feel like doing.  Go on “you be you”, “live your truth”.  But know that life is not fair.  Don’t make it worse for yourself.  There are always consequences.

Alaska, Home of the Tall One

 

Denali:  Kuyokan Athabascan word meaning The High One or the Tall One.

My wife and I just spent 11 days in Alaska, not on a cruise either.  The original plan was to travel entirely by train and shuttle vans.  But I prefer to be in control, do not like crowds or being forced to spend untold hours with random strangers.  So, it’s best for me and other travelers that I rent a car.

We flew into Anchorage.  Took one guided tour from there to an abandoned mine site an hour or so northeast of Anchorage.  It was pretty much a “meh” day and my wife and I were regretting that we had not just gone back to Montana one more time.  

The next day we headed north toward Talkeetna on our own.   The first 50-60 miles was more “meh” and left us hoping it would get better.  And it did.  Finally, the mountains started to impress.  Fall colors were more vibrant as we drove farther north.  We arrived at the little tourist town of Talkeetna had lunch and then headed out for some dryland dog-sledding.  We were transported to Dallas Seavey’s Kennels. Seavey, six-time Iditarod champion, was not there but his team and his dogs were.  Seavey has a lot of dogs.  We got to meet most of them, which was great.  The handlers hitched four dogs up to a wheeled sled, showed us how to steer it and brake as needed and off we went.  It was a hoot and I highly recommend it if you’re ever in Alaska.

The next morning we took an airplane ride over Denali National Park and the clouds cleared enough that we flew over the summit of Mount Denali.  Definitely worth the time and a considerable amount of money.  That afternoon we drove north to the Denali Borough and the scenery did not disappoint.  The mountains are impressive, and it truly is a wilderness.   Few people and very little traffic.  My kind of place.  When we arrived at the park, there were more people but nothing like you would encounter at a big-name national park in the lower 48.

The following day we were on a bus tour of the park.  You can only drive personal vehicles a certain distance into the park and from there it’s hike or take one of the park’s hop-on/hop-off shuttle buses.  Had we known about that option, we would not have taken the bus tour.  After announcing that she would not talk too much, the tour bus driver/guide proceeded to talk non-stop for the next 5 hours.  She was particularly fascinated by Arctic Ground Squirrels, so at least half of her ramblings were about those little critters.  The scenery was great, we saw Dall Sheep and Moose.  But, on a scale of 1-10, I’d only give it a 5.  Could have been an 8 or 9 with a less talking from the driver.

The next day, Saturday, we headed back south toward Girdwood which is about 35 miles the other side of Anchorage.  We stayed at the Alyeska Resort and I would definitely recommend it. 

Sunday morning we took a helicopter ride into the mountains and made two landings on glaciers.  It was my first time in a helicopter and it was great.  We got to see things you could only see from a helicopter and the glacier landings were an unforgettable experience.  Again, it cost some money but was well worth it.

We finished up our trip in Seward with a cruise around the Kenai Fjords National Park. It ranked up there with the dog-sledding and airplane ride, but the helicopter ride was the best.  Then it was back to Anchorage the next day and an early flight out the following morning.

Alaska was on our bucket list and I am glad we went.  We had a great time.  But Alaska is one and done for us.  It’s definitely worth seeing if you can afford the airplane and helicopter rides and if you’re up to handling as dog sled.  If not, then I would suggest taking an Alaska cruise.  I’m not a cruiser, but I would think it’s the best way for most folks to see Alaska.

Alaska would be a tough place to live.  The long winters and limited sunshine would get to me.  Unless you’re a big-time hunter or fisherman, I couldn’t see much reason for living up there.  It’s definitely not a place for everyone.  We lived in Montana and loved it.  But Alaska is a whole other world.  Even in my prime, I don’t think I would have enjoyed it much.  But I could say the same thing about most major cities in the lower 48, so maybe I’m just too picky.

My Two Cents Worth While Sweating Out Another August in Texas

 

_It’s definitely hot here in North Texas.  It’s not record breaking, but it is news making.  It’s interesting how many of the record hot days here in Grayson County Texas are from the last century.  We have not yet become an urban heat island here.  So, what you see and feel is what you get; and it’s pretty close to what folks got 100 years ago or 50 years ago.  I’m not denying climate change, I’m just making an observation.

_The British are coming. It appears that our cousins in the UK have finally had enough.  Mass immigration combined with a lack of cultural assimilation have finally reached the boiling point.  Many British citizens, generational British citizens are fed up.  They have learned a lesson that inclusion is a hard pull when people come from entirely different cultures and religions.  And if they don’t look like each other it makes it even more difficult.  Not impossible, but not something that just happens because certain progressive elites think it’s a good idea.  Everyone must work together and want to get along.  And frankly, the newcomers end up having to want it the most and work harder to get it.  So far, that’s what we’ve seen here in the United States.  Perhaps because we are a nation of immigrants.  But it’s not easy.

_Donald Trump may have dodged the assassin’s bullet, but he is now shooting himself in the foot on a regular basis.  Ignoring the counsel of cooler heads and seasoned advisors, he’s making it personal. Trump is also showing signs that his age is catching up with him.  It’s not a good look.  The GOP, with Trump leading the charge, is on the way to losing the November election, not only for the White House, but “down-ticket” which means the Democrats will control the Executive Branch, The Senate and The House.

_Excluding the bizarre opening ceremony, I enjoyed watching some of the Olympics, especially track and field.  The USA did well.  Those from Texas or developed in Texas showed up and showed out.  But the Olympics has too many events and too many participants with no chance of winning a medal or even being competitive.  Fewer events, fewer athletes and a shorter, classier opening ceremony would make the Olympics much better in my opinion.  (Old guy now pulls up his pants, slaps a newspaper against his leg and rattles the change in his pocket.)

"It is greencards that become blue passports. It is unlearning the language of our grandparents. It is knowing how to pronounce Arkansas and Illinois.  It is enjoying barbeques on somber national holidays."-Anamika Nair

 

More Than Money

Recruiting management and executive talent in the transportation/logistics world has been as much of a roller coaster ride as the industry itself.  We went from the Covid Freight Bonanza to the Great Freight Recession.  Like most roller coaster rides it’s been a combination of fun, fear and nausea.  That would certainly describe the transportation/logistics job market.  We quickly went from “Help Wanted” to layoffs and hiring freezes.

Overlooked in this mad scramble to hire talent and then reverse course to “right-sizing” are some fundamental changes in the Candidate Market.  These changes have been coming on for the last 10 or 15 years and have now come to define the candidate market.  And when this freight recession ends, and it will end, good luck finding help.

Much has changed and there are a lot of reasons why.  These reasons tend to fall under the heading of “changing expectations”.  I think this is particularly true for candidates who have come of age since 2000.  For management level and above this would be in the 25-45 age range.  They have grown up in a different world; the world of 911, the 2008-2010 recession, mergers and acquisitions, an increasingly polarized nation and, most recently, the Covid Pandemic.  To a large degree these events have shaped their outlook toward work and career advancement.

These candidates are reluctant to trust employers (or recruiters).  They have personally experienced or witnessed the impact of a recession on employment.  The escalation of merger and acquisition activity during the extended era of cheap money following the recession may have created some jobs, but even more job losses.  If this is how the marketplace works, why risk changing jobs or relocating for a career opportunity that is just as likely to evaporate as it is to materialize?  We have a prime age workforce that just doesn’t buy into pursuing career opportunities unless the overall payoff is large, highly probable and immediate.  They have good reason to be cynical about the long-term benefits of sacrificing too much for what may well turn out to be too little.

The offshoots of this are a desire for work-life balance and a resistance to relocation.  Furthermore, to make a job change; it must be the right position, with the right company, in the right place, at the right time…and for the right money.  Most candidates are no longer willing to take a “stepping-stone” job for a modest increase in pay, especially if it involves relocation and does not come with a significant improvement in work-life balance.  And those candidates who are genuinely career driven are looking for a bigger job, more responsibility and a lot more money.  Gone are the days of someone taking a job for a 10-15% increase in compensation.   Perhaps if there is no relocation, that might work.  Otherwise, it needs to be a 25-30% increase which likely puts them above current employees in similar positions.  So that’s not going to work.

For now there are enough unemployed or under-employed candidates who will accept any job if it pays close to what they were previously earning.  But that candidate pool will dry up quickly as the economy improves.  We are also seeing companies hire below “spec” in order to stay within their pay range for the position.  More often than not it does not turn out well for the company or the candidate.

Looking ahead, companies that have the talent will be the winners.  This means developing and retaining that talent.  Companies cannot rely on the marketplace to fill their needs.  This is coming from a headhunter who makes his living recruiting people away from one company to another. There will still be times when going to the market for talent is necessary.  Recruiting, whether internal or third-party, will still be around.  But companies best invest in new people and fill their needs internally.  Finding and hiring talent in the open market is not going to get any easier or more affordable.