“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”- Yogi
Berra
I scaled back to only 5 predictions for 2024 and still the results
were at best mediocre. And I really missed on The Election which was the
biggie. Here are those predictions and
the grades:
2024 Predictions
_1 The economy shows some improvement driven by lower
energy costs and a mid-year interest rate cut.
Grade C+. The first half of the year was much worse than
predicted. The second half was about as predicted.
Grade F: I am happy to admit that it wasn’t even close on this prediction.
Grade B: The crisis continues, but with fewer attacks abroad than I
feared.
Grade B: Mostly accurate, but Biden’s blanket pardon of his son knocks this one back to a B at best.
_5 Over in the toy department, Alabama wins another Natty and the
49ers win the Super Bowl. Paris hosts the
2024 Olympics. It turns out to be more of a Tik-Tok event than a television
event. Advertisers, networks and nations lose vast sums of money on the
Olympics. Eventually, the world will decide to just let Greece have the Summer
Olympics and Switzerland the Winter Olympics on a permanent basis.
Grade: C. Total miss on the college championship. At least the 49ers got to the Super Bowl, but
glad that the Chiefs found a way to win. I would grade my prediction on the Olympics
as “A”.
Drum Roll…now the 2025 Predictions:
_1 The economy continues to improve, but it’s not going to be a “boom”.
The skilled labor market remains tight. The
Trump Tariff program, while not as extreme as threatened, will still have a
negative effect in the short run. Given that inflation remains a concern, interest
rate cuts will be modest and few. The DOGE project, if successful, will be
another drag on the economy for the next few years. It’s the right thing to do but it comes at a price.
Lower energy costs and less government regulation/interference will be good
things for the economy.
_2 Another economic factor will be a big story in 2025 and that is the Labor Movement. The Trump administration will do many things that business leaders will applaud. But restraining the labor movement is not one of them. Both parties acknowledge the ever-increasing frustration and anger throughout the working class. Washington will pressure business to make concessions and put more money in workers’ pockets. This creates more inflationary pressure, but I sense that we’ve reached the tipping point where labor is demanding better pay, better benefits and better working conditions...or else.
_3 European countries along with Canada will continue to shift to the
right. The most immediate impact of this will be a pull-back on the Green
Agenda. Citizens in countries which have
gone all in on reducing the use of fossil fuels are simply paying too much for
energy and getting too little in return.
_4 Immigration will continue to be a major issue around the world and
another factor pushing Western Nations further to the right. Open borders are over. While industrialized countries desperately need
immigrant labor, their citizens are tired of subsidizing immigrants who will
not or cannot contribute and/or refuse to assimilate into their new country of
residence.
_5 Now to the really important stuff…the world of sports. I’m liking the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super
Bowl. Their opponent: the Detroit Lions. The college football national champion:
Oregon beats Notre Dame. The Dodgers
repeat winning the World Series again. As
part of the DOGE Project, the NCAA loses its non-profit status and goes out of
business. All college athletes join the Teamsters.
(2025 is the Year of the Wood Snake on the Chinese Calendar. Last Wood Snake Year was 1965...great year for music and automobiles.)
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